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Activity Number: 333
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 2, 2016 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #318148 View Presentation
Title: Interpreting Administrative Data from Intuit Business Services
Author(s): Susan Woodward*
Companies: Sand Hill Econometrics
Keywords: small business ; employment ; revenues ; wages ; hours ; hiring
Abstract:

Paper #4: Interpreting Administrative Data from Intuit Business Services Author: Dr. Susan Woodward, Sand Hill Econometrics swoodward@sandhillecon.com and susan.e.woodward@gmail.com Key words: Small business; employment; seasonality; wages; hours; full-time; revenue; expenses; industry detail; comparability to federal data Abstract: This paper discusses models built from Intuit Payroll Online and Intuit Quickbooks Online. Payroll service data is used as an input to a forecast of QCEW employment by employer size for companies with fewer than 20 employees, reported by Census nine months hence. We also construct series for average wages, percentiles of wages, hours worked, percent full-time, total compensation per employee, and the hiring rate. Customers of the payroll service currently number 275,000 firms employing 1.2 million people. The model successfully forecasts small business employment. Quickbooks is accounting software, now used by 260,000 small business customers online, classified by industry. These are used to build indexes of small business revenue by industry that show the impact of the collapse in construction (2006) and the bank panic (2008q4) on small business.


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