JSM 2015 Online Program

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Legend: Washington State Convention Center = CC, Sheraton Seattle = S, Grand Hyatt = GH and The Conference Center = TCC
* = applied session       ! = JSM meeting theme

Activity Details

CE_29T Wed, 8/12/2015, 8:00 AM - 9:45 AM S-Willow A
Predicting the Future Course of a Trial (ADDED FEE) — Professional Development Computer Technology Workshop
ASA , Cytel Inc.
Cytel president and co-founder, Cyrus Mehta, will explore new ways of predicting a trial's future course based on interim data analysis and simulating the time path of a trial. Predictive interval plots (PIPs) are a series of repeated confidence intervals (RCIs) graphically depicting the future course of a group sequential clinical trial conditional on the current data. Sorted and stacked on top of one another, RCI's provide insights about the magnitude of the expected treatment effect at 1) each subsequent interim look and 2) the end of the trial. (2007. Evans, Li, and Wei. Data monitoring in clinical trials. DIA Journal 41:733-42.) Data monitoring committees find PIPs especially useful when contemplating early termination of a trial for either efficacy or futility based on totality of available evidence. Other new methods introduced are for predicting enrollment and event forecasting in time-to-event trials. East® PREDICT aggregates data from individual sites, models the arrival of patients and events, updates model parameters as new data become available, and simulates the time path (patient enrollment/event arrival) of the trial.
Instructor(s): Cyrus Mehta, Cytel Inc.

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