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Activity Number: 462
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ASA
Abstract #317962 View Presentation
Title: A Flexible Randomized Clinical Trial for Evaluating Therapeutics for Ebola Disease
Author(s): Michael Proschan* and Lori Dodd
Companies: NIH/NIAID and NIAID/NIH
Keywords:
Abstract:

Ebola is a deadly disease ravaging western Africa. Because the estimated overall mortality rate is about 50%, there is pressure to give experimental treatments-any treatments-to Ebola sufferers even without proof of efficacy. Interpretation of the resulting hodgepodge of data from ad-hoc allocation of treatments is nearly impossible. A randomized clinical trial is desperately needed to confirm efficacy of new treatments. We describe a flexible design allowing incorporation of promising new agents and facilitating interpretation of results even if the trial stops early because the epidemic wanes, the treatment supply is interrupted, etc. We dub the approach "barely Bayesian" because our non-informative uniform priors for the mortality probabilities in each arm are quickly overwhelmed by actual data. Focusing on posterior probabilities rather than type I error rate makes the conclusions depend only on results observed, not what action would have been taken had other results been observed. We will discuss this and other features of the design.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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