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Activity Number: 562
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #317727
Title: Ranking NCAA Football Teams Through Expected Points
Author(s): Zachary Knowlton* and Gilbert Fellingham
Companies: and Brigham Young University
Keywords: Sports ; Football ; NCAA ; Tiered Polychotomous Regression ; Expected Points
Abstract:

There are various methods that have been explored to rank college football teams. We investigate the use of a tiered polychotomous logistic regression technique to compute the expected points of each play in college football from 2005-2013, based on the covariates down, distance, and field position. We will evaluate a team's performance by comparing that team's actual point scoring performance to the point performance predicted by the tiered polychotomous logistic regression model. We then explore how effectively certain teams execute throughout the 2014 season. We use this performance metric to rate the offense and defense of certain teams. Combining the offensive and defensive ratings we produce a listing of the top 25 teams in the 2014 season.


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