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Activity Number: 542
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract #317688
Title: Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?
Author(s): Valeria Espinosa* and Donald B. Rubin
Companies: Google and Harvard University
Keywords: Causal inference ; Donor pools ; Matching ; Rubin Causal Model
Abstract:

We analyze publicly available data to estimate the causal effects of military interventions on the homicide rates in certain problematic regions in Mexico. We use the Rubin causal model to compare the post-intervention homicide rate in each intervened region to the hypothetical homicide rate for that same year had the military intervention not taken place. Because the effect of a military intervention is not confined to the municipality subject to the intervention, a nonstandard definition of units is necessary to estimate the causal effect of the intervention under the standard no-interference assumption of SUTVA. Donor pools are created for each missing potential outcome under no intervention, thereby allowing for the estimation of unit-level causal effects. A multiple imputation approach accounts for un- certainty about the missing potential outcomes.


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