Evaluating the Predictive Performance of Biomarkers in Survival Models

• Activity Number: 363
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Biometrics Section
• Author(s): Chao-Kang Jason Liang* and Patrick Heagerty
• Companies: University of Washington and University of Washington
• Keywords: Biomarkers ; Survival ; Predictive modeling ; IDI ; ROC ; Discrimination

Abstract

In many biomedical applications a primary goal is to construct predictive models with survival data, and appropriate measures that characterize a biomarker's predictive potential or incremental value are needed. We first review existing non-parametric methods proposed for time-dependent accuracy (Heagerty, Lumley, and Pepe, 2000; Saha and Heagerty, 2013) and then overview extensions of integrated discrimination index (IDI). The proposed methods can also be extended to evaluate time-varying biomarkers. We outline estimation methods and applications to benchmark data sets to illustrate the methodology.