Does Fast-Paced Offense Pay off in the NFL?

• Activity Number: 439
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Masaru Teramoto* and Chad L. Cross and Vincent J. Dalbo
• Companies: University of Utah and Nevada State College and Central Queensland University
• Keywords: fast-paced offense ; no-huddle offense ; National Football League (NFL) ; correlation ; regression analysis

Abstract

A popular trend in football today is a fast-paced offense (e.g., no-huddle offense). However, its efficacy in the National Football League (NFL) is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine whether the fast-paced offense is associated with winning NFL games. We examined an average time of total drives in a game (TTD/G) for each NFL team in 2013, and analyzed its association with winning percentage (WP), as well as offensive simple rating system (OSRS) and defensive simple rating system (DSRS). TTD/G was positively correlated with WP (r = 0.289), OSRS (r = 0.241), and DSRS (r = 0.340). If strength of schedule was accounted for by a regression analysis, there was a significant, positive association between TTD/G and DSRS (sr = 0.360, p < 0.05), but not between TTD/G and WP or OSRS (p > 0.05). As a result, the fast-paced offense was not particularly an effective strategy for winning NFL games in 2013. The teams with longer TTD/G tended to play better defense in that season. The results may suggest that having the offensive team on the field for a longer time will allow the defensive team to rest, translating into a better defensive game, and hence, potentially a better outcome.