JSM 2015 Online Program

Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 439
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #317577
Title: Does Fast-Paced Offense Pay off in the NFL?
Author(s): Masaru Teramoto* and Chad L. Cross and Vincent J. Dalbo
Companies: University of Utah and Nevada State College and Central Queensland University
Keywords: fast-paced offense ; no-huddle offense ; National Football League (NFL) ; correlation ; regression analysis

A popular trend in football today is a fast-paced offense (e.g., no-huddle offense). However, its efficacy in the National Football League (NFL) is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine whether the fast-paced offense is associated with winning NFL games. We examined an average time of total drives in a game (TTD/G) for each NFL team in 2013, and analyzed its association with winning percentage (WP), as well as offensive simple rating system (OSRS) and defensive simple rating system (DSRS). TTD/G was positively correlated with WP (r = 0.289), OSRS (r = 0.241), and DSRS (r = 0.340). If strength of schedule was accounted for by a regression analysis, there was a significant, positive association between TTD/G and DSRS (sr = 0.360, p < 0.05), but not between TTD/G and WP or OSRS (p > 0.05). As a result, the fast-paced offense was not particularly an effective strategy for winning NFL games in 2013. The teams with longer TTD/G tended to play better defense in that season. The results may suggest that having the offensive team on the field for a longer time will allow the defensive team to rest, translating into a better defensive game, and hence, potentially a better outcome.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2015 program

For program information, contact the JSM Registration Department or phone (888) 231-3473.

For Professional Development information, contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

2015 JSM Online Program Home