Model Emulation and Calibration in Radiation Transport Experiments

• Activity Number: 501
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
• Author(s): Michael Grosskopf* and Derek Bingham and Marv Adams and Daryl Hawkins and Aaron Holzaepfel
• Companies: Simon Fraser University and Simon Fraser University and Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University
• Keywords: computer experiments ; calibration ; emulation

Abstract

Calibration and assessment of predictive uncertainty in complex computer models is an important emerging field in scientific computing. As expensive computer models become more important across areas of science and engineering, their reliability and the understanding of the precision and accuracy of their predictions is critical. We present work is motivated by research modeling radiation transport in high-energy-density physics experiments at the Center for Exascale Radiation Transport (CERT). There, state-of-the-art high performance computing is used at extreme scales in order to simulate the radiation dynamics. We present work addressing the unique challenges in combining the output from these models and experiments using the Kennedy-O'Hagan Bayesian framework for model calibration. Additionally, we will address the experimental design for field measurements, including discussion of the value of replicates in this experimental environment.