On Predicting U.S. and State-Level Cancer Mortality Counts

• Activity Number: 193
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 10, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Biometrics Section
• Author(s): Huann-Sheng Chen* and Shunpu Zhang
• Companies: NIH and University of Nebraska
• Keywords: age-period-cohort model ; prediction ; Bayesian ; mortality

Abstract

The number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the current year for the total United States and for individual states are published yearly by the American Cancer Society, which have traditionally been available in January in order to provide the contemporary burden of cancer in that particular year. Due to 4-year lag in reporting of complete observed data, these numbers are projections from data of the years prior to the current year. In this paper, we consider an age-period-cohort model and compare to other methods for projection of cancer deaths in the current year, nationally and in each state.