JSM 2015 Preliminary Program

Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 91
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 9, 2015 : 9:30 PM to 10:15 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #317358
Title: Quantifying Numerical Uncertainty in Dynamical Climate Models
Author(s): Oksana Chkrebtii* and David A. Campbell and Mark Girolami and Ben Calderhead
Companies: The Ohio State University and Simon Fraser University and University of Warwick and Imperial College London
Keywords: Uncertainty quantification ; Dynamic Systems ; Chaotic Dynamics ; Bayesian Function Estimation ; Gaussian Processes ; Fluid Dynamics
Abstract:

Climate models can be very sensitive to small perturbations, including those arising from truncation error in the numerical solution of systems of ODEs or PDEs defining the system states. We present a new formalism for characterizing and propagating this source of uncertainty through the statistical inverse problem of inference. Our Bayesian approach is illustrated on classical chaotic systems and allows the trade-off between accuracy and computational expenditure arising from the choice of discretization grid in a principled way.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2015 program





For program information, contact the JSM Registration Department or phone (888) 231-3473.

For Professional Development information, contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

2015 JSM Online Program Home