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Activity Number: 316
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #317347 View Presentation
Title: Predicting the Winners of Hockey Games
Author(s): Samuel Buttrey*
Companies: Naval Postgraduate School
Keywords: Simulation ; Betting strategy ; Poisson model
Abstract:

This article describes a method for predicting the outcome of National Hockey League (NHL) games. We combine a model for goal scoring and yielding, and one for penalty commission, in a Markov-type computation and a simulation model that produce predicted probabilities of victory for each team. Where these differ substantially from the market probabilities, we make ``bets' according to a simple strategy. Our return on investment is both positive and statistically significant.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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