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Activity Number: 247
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 10, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #316879
Title: Spatio-Temporal Cyclostationary Models of Solar Irradiance
Author(s): Charlotte Haley*
Companies: Argonne National Laboratory
Keywords: Time Series Analysis ; Cyclostationarity ; Prediction ; Spectrum Analysis
Abstract:

In this study we model solar irradiance at ground based sites in the continental US in order to predict into the future. The obvious nonstationary, non-Gaussian data have nightly zeros, or slightly negative values, producing dual frequency spectra with large values on the diagonals with offsets of 24 hours. Analysis of this particular covariance structure implies a a non-Gaussian process model with cyclostationary noise structure. Fitting stationary vs cyclostationary models reveals simpler and more accurate results are obtained using the cyclostationary framework.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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