An Integrated Population Dynamics Model of North-American Mourning Doves Using Band-Recovery and Harvest Surveys

• Activity Number: 354
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Mark Otto*
• Companies: Fish and Wildlife Service
• Keywords: Bayesian estimation ; wildlife survey ; band recovery model

Abstract

We develop an integrated population model for North American Mourning Doves using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Band recovery data, including reward banding, are used to estimate harvest rates and survival rates apart from the harvest. Wing collection surveys are used to estimate age ratios. There are no surveys for population level, but having both estimates of harvest from the harvest survey and harvest rates from the banding allows an estimation of population size. The hierarchical model follows a Kalman filter model: the observation part of the model accounts for the survey sample error of each of the component surveys, and the process part accounts for the population dynamics using a random walk model. The survival and reproductive parameters control the next year's population estimate. Diffuse or noninformative priors are used to initialize the juvenile and adult population time series. Differences between individual survey and the integrated model estimates show how the estimates are made to be consistent and point out possible survey conflicts. We also expand the model, adding a logistic growth constraint. Logistic growth imposes density dependence, a condition