Prediction of Opening Weekend Box Office Performance

• Activity Number: 438
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Marketing
• Author(s): Animesh Mitra*
• Keywords: box office ; opening weekend ; genre ; prediction ; movies

Abstract

Box office refers to the amount of business a particular movie makes. Since the movie industry is highly dynamic, it will be very helpful to develop a model for predicting box office success. Since opening weekend box office performance of a particular movie largely determines its total revenue, we opt opening weekend collection for simplicity. There are many factors that influence opening weekend collection namely genre, production budget, number of screens, critic rating, star power, release timing, sequel. We check that genre has a significant influence on our response, different people having different taste, so we opt for genre wise regression analysis. We categorize all the movies into five genres, namely, animation, drama, action, thriller, comedy. From our analysis, Number of screens is a significant factor in all the genres except Animation. Production Budget plays an important role in the genres named drama and animation. Metacritic Rating comes into play only in the case of action movies.