Abstract:
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Most analyses of effective brain connectivity employ stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models which assume a static inter-dependence between distinct brain regions. Emerging evidence suggests the presence of temporal variations in connectivity during rest or active conditions. A possible way of quantifying these changes is to use a time-varying VAR (TVAR) state-space model. However, estimation is unreliable for networks with large number of brain regions. We present our newly developed subspace VAR (SVAR) model based on a latent factor model, where the directed interactions in the large fMRI data are driven by a few common factors following a VAR dynamic. To capture the evolving causal interactions, we propose a time-dependent variant of the SVAR model, by combining the factor model with a TVAR factor process. We propose a robust two-step estimation procedure by first estimating the factor model using the principal component (PC) methods, followed by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed method is evaluated on a resting-state fMRI dataset of 25 healthy subjects.
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