JSM 2015 Preliminary Program

Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 496
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Transportation Statistics Interest Group
Abstract #315978 View Presentation
Title: Factor Importance and Predictive Models for Nonsignalized Intersection Crash Data
Author(s): Ketong Wang* and Jenna Simandl and Michael Porter and Andrew Graettinger and Randy Smith
Companies: The University of Alabama and The University of Alabama and The University of Alabama and The University of Alabama and The University of Alabama
Keywords: Non-signalized intersections ; crash frequency ; factor importance ; factor predictive models
Abstract:

The Center for Advanced Public Safety for the Alabama Department of Transportation reported that 21.2% of the crashes in 2012 across the state of Alabama were intersection related. To mitigate intersection related crashes, it is critical to identity influential intersection factors on traffic accidents and build a more accurate safety performance function (SPF).

Through this paper, a question is addressed -- does the choice of SPF (i.e., statistical or data mining model) impact the perceived effect of a factor on accident frequency? If the answer is no, the simplest and most interpretable model is preferred for crash modeling. Otherwise, practitioners must apply further investigation on which SPF to use for accident modeling. In this paper, factor importance and interaction effects of intersection factors are studied for non-signalized data in the state of Alabama. Various statistical and data mining models are investigated and their predictive performance is discussed. Finally suggestions are made on modeling intersection-related accident data.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2015 program





For program information, contact the JSM Registration Department or phone (888) 231-3473.

For Professional Development information, contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

2015 JSM Online Program Home