Bayesian Hypothesis Testing in Finite Populations: Bernoulli Multivariate Variables

• Activity Number: 263
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 10, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Brian Melo* and Luís Gustavo Esteves
• Companies: and Universidade de São Paulo
• Keywords: finite populations ; hypothesis testing ; operational parameters ; majority elections ; bayesian

Abstract

Bayesian hypothesis testing for the (operational) parameter of interest in a Bernoulli (multivariate) process observed in a finite population is the focus of this study. We introduce statistical test procedures for the relevant parameter under the predictivistic perspective of Bruno de Finetti in contrast with the usual superpopulation models. The comparison between these approaches, exemplified in a simple scenario of majority elections, shows considerable differences between the corresponding results for the case of observed large sampling fractions. More precisely, there is a significant increase on the posterior information when the predictivistic approach is considered.