JSM 2015 Preliminary Program

Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 647
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 13, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #315753
Title: Time Series Modeling of Pathogen-Specific Disease Probabilities with Incomplete Data
Author(s): Leigh Fisher* and Jon Wakefield
Companies: and University of Washington
Keywords: temporal smoothing ; infectious disease modeling ; method of moments ; missing data ; Bayesian spline modeling
Abstract:

Many diseases arise due to exposure to one of multiple pathogens. We consider the situation in which disease counts are available over time from a study region, along with a measure of clinical disease severity, for example, mild or severe. In addition, we suppose a subset of the cases are lab tested in order to determine the pathogen responsible for disease. In such a context, we focus interest on the probabilities of disease incidence given pathogen type, and on severity given pathogen type. The time course of these probabilities is of great interest as is the association with time-varying covariates such as meteorological characteristics.

The responses of interest are not directly observed, we obtain estimates of these quantities, with an associated variance. We then model these summary statistics using a Bayesian spline model with a fast implementation over time. We analyze data on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China in which there are two pathogens of primary interest, enterovirus 71 and Coxackie A16. We find that disease incidence for the two main pathogens follow similar associations with both time and meteorological variables.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2015 program





For program information, contact the JSM Registration Department or phone (888) 231-3473.

For Professional Development information, contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

2015 JSM Online Program Home