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Activity Number: 354
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract #315602 View Presentation
Title: Group Elicitation for Bayesian Prior
Author(s): Grace Zhang* and Faiz Ahmad and Timothy H. Montague
Companies: Merck and GSK and GlaxoSmithKline
Keywords: Bayesian ; Prior ; Elicitation
Abstract:

An important element in Bayesian analysis is the specification of Prior Distribution. The Prior distribution can be based on previously available data, expert opinion, or a combination of both. To elicit the expert's opinion, Decision makers often have access to more than one expert and eliciting the opinion from several experts will lead to multiple probability distributions. Therefore, it may be desirable to obtain a single distribution that encapsulates the beliefs of several experts. This presentation will summarize and compare different group elicitation approaches including mathematical aggregation and behavioral aggregation. Experience with eliciting prior distribution from multiple experts for one clinical trial will be demonstrated as an example.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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