B-Privy Dynamics in the Probability Plane: Quantitative Horizon Scanning from a Physics Perspective

• Activity Number: 304
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
• Author(s): Jeffrey L. Solka* and Dan Parks and Richard Tatum
• Companies: NSWCDD and NSWCDD and NSWCPC
• Keywords: technology ; forecasting ; b-privy ; Lagrngian ; probability plane ; surprise

Abstract

It is shown that - when viewed as a scalar potential function - the argument of the logarithmic statistic used in b-privy theory to empirically detect potential technological surprise via author collaborations found in the scientific literature generates a conservative force field on the [0; 1]x[0; 1] probability plane. This potential enables the definitions of scientometric analogues of the physical quantities internal energy, work, system Lagrangian, conjugate momenta, position, and velocity, where the internal energy measures the potential for collaborative breakthrough; work measures the change in internal energy; the Lagrangian describes the equation of motion for the internal energy of a collaborative breakthrough system (a time labeled point in the probability plane);conjugate momenta measure the certainties of collaborative breakthrough surprise; position is the location of a collaborative breakthrough system in the probability plane; and velocity measures the speed and direction of motion of a collaborative breakthrough system in the probability plane.