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Activity Number: 444
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #315236
Title: Three Elections and Three Tests: Applying Electoral Forensics to the Rajapaksa Era in Sri Lanka
Author(s): Ole Forsberg*
Companies: Oklahoma State University
Keywords: Sri Lanka ; Elections ; Democracy ; Electoral Forensics
Abstract:

Mahinda Rajapaksa was president of Sri Lanka from 2005 until 2015. During his tenure, he oversaw the end of the civil war and the jailing of some political opponents. Claims of electoral fraud remain attached to all three of his presidential elections: 2005, 2010, and 2015.

The sub-discipline of electoral forensics seeks to test such claims using statistical techniques. While certain tests are quite straight forward and based on the definition of "free and fair," other tests suffer from an unknown null distribution.

I present the results of a statistical analysis of three Sri Lankan presidential elections: 2005, 2010, and 2015. This analysis contains a mixture of the well-settled and the experimental techniques. Results of the former suggest violations of the democratic hypothesis. Results of the latter suggests something just as interesting.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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