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Activity Number: 102
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 10, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: ASA
Abstract #314750
Title: Space-Time Modeling of Infectious Disease Data
Author(s): Jon Wakefield*
Companies: University of Washington
Keywords:
Abstract:

Spatio-temporal models for infectious disease data have a long and interesting history, and the last 10 years has seen a number of notable contributions to this field. In this lecture I will provide an overview of models that have been proposed for both point and count data. Compartmental models, such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, are appealing, since they provide an insight into disease transmission dynamics, but are notoriously difficult to fit. However, recent computational advances, including those based on variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have finally allowed the fitting of models which are epidemiologically realistic. Examples from my own research will be presented, including the modeling of hand, foot and mouth disease in China, and of cholera in Bangladesh.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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