WITHDRAWN: Approaches and Concerns with Incorporating Available Statistical Information in Terrorism Risk Analyses

• Activity Number: 293
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Eric Tollar*
• Companies: Battelle Memorial Institute
• Keywords: WMD ; DHS ; Risk ; Data

Abstract

Since 2004, the Department of Homeland Security regularly conducts a variety of Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRA) on the risks associated with terrorist attacks on the homeland using Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The population of these risk assessments require the probabilistic population of numerous parameters about terrorist intentions and success of activities of the various stages of a WMD attack on the data. This analysis reviews the various unclassified data that is available that is relevant to the WMD risk analyses, examines it's appropriateness to the PRA analyses, and discusses the present approaches used in PRA to inform the risk parameters. This analysis also discusses other approaches that have been recommended or could be used to augment and extend the existing data.