Abstract Details
Activity Number:
|
349
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
Date/Time:
|
Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
|
Abstract #314059
|
|
Title:
|
Forecast Model Comparisons of ISO New England Electricity Demand
|
Author(s):
|
Timothy Fletcher*+
|
Companies:
|
Northwestern University
|
Keywords:
|
electricity demand forecasting ;
ARIMA ;
artificial neural networks ;
support vector machines ;
random forests
|
Abstract:
|
Reliable access and constant availability to electricity is important for the economy and safety of the residents of New England. The Independent System Operators (ISO) New England is responsible for meeting the electricity needs of the 6.5 million households and businesses in the New England region by managing the wholesale electricity market and overseeing the operation of the power generation and transmission system. ISO New England (ISO-NE) is composed of eight zones. The objective of this paper is to compare methods of forecasting short-term electricity demand in ISO-NE. We are asking: Can a predictive model be constructed that improves the Day Ahead Demand (DAHD) forecast? ARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests modeling techniques are tested on a data set for the calendar year 2012. Each of these approaches is compared for their predictive ability. Each zone within ISO-NE is modeled individually. The RMSE of the demand forecasts for each model are compared to the DAHD RMSE during the same period. Using one or more of the modeling tools can improve the DAHD hourly forecast values.
|
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2014 program
|
2014 JSM Online Program Home
For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.
If you have questions about the Professional Development program, please contact the Education Department.
The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.
Copyright © American Statistical Association.