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Activity Number: 349
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract #314019
Title: The Effect of Shot Selection Trends on Offensive Efficiency
Author(s): Justin Post and Michael Dickey*+
Companies: North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University
Keywords: Basketball ; Spatial Shot Locations ; Shooting Efficiency ; Logistic Regression ; Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Abstract:

After observing a substantial increase in three point shot attempts in recent NBA seasons, one may wonder what effect this has on how efficient offenses have become as a result. Using spatial NBA shooting data from the 1996-2013 seasons, we investigate trends in how many shots are taken from specific zones of a basketball court and what proportion of these shots are made. To alleviate issues with data accuracy, we attempt to make a smoothed model of the probability of shot success using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To specifically model shot success probability, we use multiple logistic regression to determine the importance of shooting area, home-court advantage, opposing team, and possibly other important predictors of shot success. We attempt to identify types of shots resulting in the most points-per-possession and find which NBA teams are attempting the best shots. Pairwise comparison tests will be performed between points per possessions of teams that attempt efficient shots and teams that do not, to see if there is a significant difference shooting efficiency.


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