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Activity Number: 504
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Health Policy Statistics Section
Abstract #313650
Title: Particle Swarm Optimization for Diagnosis Code Variable Selection
Author(s): Gregory Watson*+
Companies:
Keywords: Particle Swarm ; Variable Selection ; Diagnosis Code ; Medical Claims
Abstract:

Predicting patient health outcomes from medical claim diagnosis codes offers the opportunity for health plans or accountable care organizations to identify patients at high risk for negative outcomes and target them for early intervention. Substantial variation in health outcomes and the large number of diagnosis codes make this a challenging task; in particular, the development of an effective model depends upon successfully discerning the subset of codes important for prediction. Particle swarm optimization is a population-based optimization technique that has been shown to be an effective tool for solving many types of optimization problems, including variable selection. This paper employs a modified particle swarm optimizer to identify diagnosis codes most important for predicting particular health events. The algorithm is demonstrated on Medicaid claims collected over a two year period on 3,917 HIV positive Medicaid beneficiaries in Southern California.


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