JSM 2014 Home
Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 111
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section for Statistical Programmers and Analysts
Abstract #313638 View Presentation
Title: Statistical Strategies to Improve the Reliability of Observational Studies
Author(s): S. Stanley Young and Matthew Rotelli*+
Companies: NISS and Eli Lilly and Company
Keywords: observational medical studies ; Oversight ; multiple modeling ; multiple testing

Recently papers point to problems with science: claims are failing to replicate. With large, observational medical studies the failure to replicate appears to be as high as 80 to 90%. With experimental biology papers 47/53 claims did not replicate. Of papers that are retracted, fraud was proven or suspected in over 40% of the papers. There is a need for funding agencies to alter the incentive system in science. This lecture is aimed at statistical consumers of science. We are all consumers in that we read the mass media and see science claims every day. The number of questions under consideration should be clearly disclosed. Journal editors should accept papers that appear to have valid claims; having a p-value <0.05 should not be their touchstone of acceptance. We need increased scientific oversight beyond journal refereeing. Examples of faliure to replicate, simple data processing and analysis strategies editors can adopt, and statistical methods to deal with multiple testing and multiple modeling will be given in this presentation.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2014 program

2014 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Professional Development program, please contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

ASA Meetings Department  •  732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314  •  (703) 684-1221  •  meetings@amstat.org
Copyright © American Statistical Association.