The Risk Prediction Model for Second Primary Malignancy in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

• Activity Number: 407
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Hui Zhao*+ and Wenyaw Chan and Xi Rong
• Companies: MD Anderson Cancer Center and University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and University of Texas School of Public Health
• Keywords: risk prediction ; prognostic model ; multi-state model ; second primary malignancy ; survival ; head and neck cancer

Abstract

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth common malignancy in the world. About 10-20% HNSCC patients would develop second primary malignancy (SPM) with moderate low survival rates. It is important to assess the risk of developing SPM to help patients, clinicians to make treatment decisions. In this study, we built a prognostic model to predict the risk of developing SPM after patients' initial diagnosis of HNSCC. First, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify prognostic factors associated with SPM. Then, we use bootstrapping to validate this prognostic model. After the model validation, we used multi-state method to estimate patients' survival probability by taking into consideration of patient's occurrence of SPM. The dataset used in this research was from the SEER-Medicare data from 1992 to 2009.