NFL Overtime Rule Change: Kick the Field Goal or Go for It?

• Activity Number: 417
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Zachary Hass*+ and Bruce Craig and Sean McCabe
• Companies: and Purdue University and Purdue University
• Keywords: Markov Models ; Football Overtime ; Momentum

Abstract

In 2012, the NFL switched overtime to a modified sudden death format in order to reduce the dependency of the game's outcome on the coin flip. This format now mandates that unless the first team to possess the ball in overtime scores a touchdown, both teams must be given an opportunity to possess the ball. This means the team with the first possession must effectively chose to pursue the decisive victory in scoring a touchdown or settle for a generally easier to acquire field goal and bet on a subsequent defensive stop. In their 2013 week 12 overtime opening drive, Green Bay opted to kick a field goal on 4th down from the 2 yard line ultimately playing Minnesota to a tie. Several researchers, using a Markov model developed from 2002-2012 play by play data, argued that going for the touchdown maximized Green Bay's probability of victory. Their Markov model probabilities, however, are based on long run averages and thus describe the probability of outcomes for two average teams. Game momentum and relative team strengths are also likely to play a role in the outcome. In this talk, we examine their impact on these overtime outcome probabilities using the same data source.