Predicting Initial Response Mode in Advance of Data Collection in the NSCG

• Activity Number: 158
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
• Author(s): Stephanie M. Coffey*+ and Chandra Erdman and Benjamin M. Reist
• Companies: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau
• Keywords: mode assignment ; adaptive design ; NSCG ; multinomial logit ; responsive desgin

Abstract

The National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) is primarily a sequential multimode survey design that collects responses by internet, paper, and telephone. Cases are sampled out of the American Community Survey and are interviewed four times over an 8-year period using rotating panels. The NSCG has access to ACS data and, in later rounds, historical NSCG response data and paradata. This research explores using multinomial logit and probit models to predict final response mode using only the information available before data collection begins.

Highly predictive models of initial response mode would identify cases likely to require paper or telephone, more costly and less timely modes of data collection in the NSCG. From an adaptive design perspective, this would allow us to tailor the initial mode of data collection based on the results of these models. Successful prediction could mean reduced total contact attempts for a respondent, quicker response, and cost control by avoiding a sequential mode design. This paper discusses data sources available to the NSCG, model evaluation and the limitations using past rounds of the NSCG, and plans for future evaluation in the 2015 NSCG.