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Activity Number: 65
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2014 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: Health Policy Statistics Section
Abstract #312715
Title: From Meta-Analysis to Decisionmaking: The Case of Incomplete Polytomous Outcome Data
Author(s): Thomas Trikalinos*+ and Christopher Schmid and Ingram Olkin
Companies: Brown University and Brown University and Stanford University
Keywords: decision model ; mutually exclusive outcomes ; network meta-analysis ; missing data ; bayesian ; utility
Abstract:

Information on comparative effectiveness of interventions derived from meta-analyses is commonly used in parameterizing decision analysis models. It is important that all meta-analysis estimates used in a decision model are internally consistent. Consistency is guaranteed for estimates obtained from a single likelihood, but not when estimates are obtained from separate meta-analyses, which is the usual practice. Even for very simple decision trees, this modest mandate can require complex modeling for evidence synthesis. We consider a decision tree comparing quality adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in patients with history of cardiovascular events across three treatment options: high dose statin treatment, low dose statin treatment and no statin treatment. QALE is parameterized as a function of probabilities for different cardiovascular outcomes simultaneously estimated in a single multinomial network meta-analytic model.


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