Nonparametric Estimation for Self-Exciting Point Processes: A Parsimonious Approach

• Activity Number: 400
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Nonparametric Statistics
• Author(s): Feng Chen*+ and Peter Hall
• Companies: University of New South Wales and University of Melbourne
• Keywords: point process ; self-exciting ; nonparametric ; kernel smoohting

Abstract

There is ample evidence that in applications of self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the intensity of background events is often far from constant. If a constant background is imposed, that assumption can reduce significantly the quality of statistical analysis, in problems as diverse as modelling the after-shocks of earthquakes and the study of ultra-high frequency financial data. Parametric models can be used to alleviate this problem, but they run the risk of distorting inference by misspecifying the nature of the background intensity function. On the other hand, a purely nonparametric approach to analysis leads to problems of identifiability; when a nonparametric approach is taken, not every aspect of the model can be identified from data recorded along a single observed sample path. In this paper we suggest overcoming this difficulty by using an approach based on the principle of parsimony, or Occam's razor. In particular, we suggest taking the point-process intensity to be either a constant or to have least differential entropy. Although seldom used for nonparametric function estimation in other settings, this approach is appropriate in the context of SEPP models.