Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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565
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 6, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistical Learning and Data Mining
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Abstract #312509
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Title:
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Framework for Harnessing the Power of Diverse Information Sources
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Author(s):
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Ville Satopää*+
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Companies:
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Keywords:
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Expert Beliefs ;
Stochastic Process ;
Multivariate Analysis ;
Probability Aggregation ;
Information Diversity
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Abstract:
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Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when modeling subjective quantities such as customer reviews, expert predictions, or property valuations, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is often more important than measurement noise. This presentation introduces a novel framework for modeling the heterogeneity arising from experts that use partially overlapping information sources. The framework is illustrated on the task of aggregating the probabilities of a group of experts who forecast whether an event will occur or not.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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