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Activity Number: 647
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract #312428 View Presentation
Title: Calibration of a Telcommunications Service Delivery Model Using Dynamic Linear Models
Author(s): Mark Bell*+ and Matthew Nunes and David Worthington and Peter Neal and Kjeld Jensen
Companies: and Lancaster University and Lancaster University and Lancaster University and BT Technology, Service, and Operations
Keywords: dynamic linear model ; state-space model ; system dynamics ; calibration
Abstract:

System dynamics (SD) simulation models are differential equation models that often contain a complex network of relationships between variables. We present a simplified version of such a model used by a major telecoms provider for service delivery, whose structure has been found to be an adequate representation of the system. As is generally the case with SD models, inputs to the model have been determined by system knowledge and estimates; not derived directly from data. These inputs can also vary considerably across different geographical regions.

We present results of an approach to calibrate the SD model, using the model's structure to construct dynamic linear models (DLM). This framework enables geographically localised data-driven parameter estimation. We show that the calibrated models provide a more accurate representation at a regional level.


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