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Activity Number: 615
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2014 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
Abstract #312375 View Presentation
Title: Research on Rotation Design and Estimation in the Current Population Survey
Author(s): Yuan Li*+ and Michael Larsen
Companies: George Washington University and George Washington University
Keywords: AK estimator ; composite estimation ; employment ; labor force ; panel survey ; unemployment
Abstract:

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a complex, multistage household probability sample that produces monthly labor force estimates in the U.S. Adults in a household are interviewed for four months in a row, left out for eight months, and then included for four more months. New households are added each month. This 4-8-4 rotation design produces overlap in the sample from month to month, quarter to quarter, and year to year. Several weighting steps are used to adjust the ultimate sample to be representative of the population. A composite estimator, called the AK estimator, is used to produce estimates of labor force levels and change. Seasonal adjustment is used account for regular fluctuations in the labor force variables. This presentation reports on studies of alternatives to the 4-8-4 rotation design and enhancements to the AK estimator. Rotation designs that are described as 3-9-3, 2-10-2, or 6-0 are compared to the 4-8-4 design. Potential enhancements to the AK estimator allow for specific parameters for areas of aggregation below the national level and shrinkage of estimates through hierarchical modeling.


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