Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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27
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 3, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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SSC
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Abstract #311967
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View Presentation
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Title:
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Back-Calculation of Infection Times for Infectious Disease via Spatial Individual Level Models
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Author(s):
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Gyanendra Pokharel*+ and Rob Deardon
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Companies:
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University of Guelph and University of Guelph
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Keywords:
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Back-calculation ;
Epidemiological studies ;
Infection times ;
Incubation period
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Abstract:
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In epidemiological studies, the complete history of the disease system is seldom available - for example, we rarely observe the infection times of individuals, rather a date of diagnosis/disease reporting. The method of back-calculation together with the knowledge of the distribution of time from the infection to the disease reporting, called the incubation period, can be used to estimate unobserved infection times. Here, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical model in which spatial information is used to help infer the unobserved infection times via back-calculation, and through this, better identify the transmission spatial-temporal dynamics themselves.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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