Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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634
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 7, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Government Statistics Section
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Abstract #311789
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View Presentation
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Title:
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Prediction of Differential Capability for Breakthrough via Network Dynamic Analysis
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Author(s):
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Jeffrey Solka*+ and Dan Parks and Richard Tatum
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Companies:
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Naval Surface Warfare Center and NSWCDD and NSWCPCD
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Keywords:
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network modeling ;
horizon scanning ;
technological forecasting
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Abstract:
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It is thought that breakthroughs often come from the serendipitous linkage of disparate topics. Entities with knowledge in these disparate topics seem better prepared to make said linkages. Using this idea, we have developed a simple test statistic which compares the differential capability of one entity set to make a breakthrough combining disparate topics as compared to another entity set. In addition, we have developed various mathematical approaches to predict the future collaboration potential among two different entity sets. Finally, we have used rudimentary outlier analysis to identify papers which may be representative of new breakthroughs.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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