Improving NFL Standings Using Bonus Points

• Activity Number: 485
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Niven Winchester*+
• Companies: MIT
• Keywords: Sports ranking systems ; Non-linear least sqaures

Abstract

This paper investigates the robustness of a National Football League (NFL) scoring system that awards each team four points for a win, two for a tie, one bonus point for scoring three or more touchdowns, and one bonus point for losing by seven or fewer points. Using a prediction model, we find that wins and bonuses earned in previous matches are significant determinants of match outcomes. We also show that teams that would have finished with a higher rank when bonus points are included relative to the status quo had better than a 50% winning record in the post season, and teams that would have a lower rank under a bonus points system have a less than 50% winning record in the playoffs. These findings indicate that adding bonus points to league standings will more accurately rank teams from strongest to weakest relative to the conventional system that only rewards wins and ties.