The Importance of Scoring the First Goal in the NHL: Game Winner or Superstition?

• Activity Number: 227
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Samantha Key*+ and Michael Rutter
• Companies: and Penn State
• Keywords: hockey ; NHL ; first ; goal

Abstract

Before each National Hockey League (NHL) game on TV and Radio, there is talk about the importance of the scoring the first goal. Not only do commentators believe that scoring the first goal of the game improves a team's chances of winning the game, it is also a superstition among NHL fans. On the NHL's official website, there is "Game Summary" pages for 10 season worth of games, which is approximately 11,780 games worth of data. Assuming that the teams are competitive in each game, a goal is just as likely to be scored by either team. By using the time of the first goal scored, who scored it, and the final score of the game, I determined whether or not the scoring the first goal increases the probability of winning the game. This was done with statistical techniques such as linear regression and the statistical programming language R. Some results were unexpected. For example, when a team scores he first goal at any moment during the first or second period, the probability of that team winning the game is the same, approximately 66%. The probability of winning the game after scoring first also varies from team to team and season to season, with values ranging from 40% to 90%.