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Activity Number: 648
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #311666 View Presentation
Title: An Assessment of Historical Demographic Analysis Estimates for the Black Male Birth Cohorts of 1935 to 1939
Author(s): Kirsten West*+
Companies:
Keywords: Census Evaluation ; Demographic Analysis ; Administrative records
Abstract:

Historical Demographic Analysis (DA) estimates reveal that in census after census, cohorts of Black males have been undercounted at higher rates than cohorts of Black females and non-Black males and females. A cohort pattern of coverage error by race and sex does not appear logical. One might expect certain ages to be more difficult to enumerate than other ages. One might also expect period effects to show up in data collections that occur decades apart. Age and period effects interact to create their own effects. However, it is difficult to understand how a cohort of a given race and sex is missed persistently every ten years. The anomaly observed in the coverage estimates may stem not solely from the difficulty of the census to enumerate this subpopulation, but from aspects inherent to the DA method. The analysis includes an examination of the factors used to correct for incomplete and missing data for Black male births in the early years of the vital registration system (1935 to 1939) and the sensitivity of the estimates to assumptions about completeness. The possible effect of race classification errors is also discussed.


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