Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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353
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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Abstract #311432
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Title:
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Bayesian Estimation of Chlamydia Prevalence in 6 Industrialized Countries
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Author(s):
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Alula Hadgu*+
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Companies:
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CDC
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Keywords:
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prevalence ;
sensitivity and specificity ;
Chlamydia Trachomatis ;
Bayesian methods ;
Markoc chain Monte carlo
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Abstract:
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Most Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) prevalence studies are based on special high risk and nationally unrepresentative populations, such as, STD clinics, family planning clinics, job core participants,military recruits, etc. However, in recent years the emergence of non-invasive testing using nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) has made it possible to conduct CT prevalence studies on nationally representative samples. In the last 10 years, researchers from industrialized countries have provided CT prevalence and trend estimates from nationally representative population-based complex sample surveys. All these national prevalence and trend estimates assume that the NAATs used to screen for chlamydia have perfect sensitivity and specificity. However, such assumption is unreasonable and unrealistic. In this work, we use Bayesian methods to simultaneously provide estimates of prevalence, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. We use the Gibbs sampler to estimate the marginal posterior distributions of all parameters. Based on this modeling approach, the unadjusted (apparent prevalence) estimate is about 2 times the adjusted (true prevalence).
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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