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Activity Number: 353
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #311432
Title: Bayesian Estimation of Chlamydia Prevalence in 6 Industrialized Countries
Author(s): Alula Hadgu*+
Companies: CDC
Keywords: prevalence ; sensitivity and specificity ; Chlamydia Trachomatis ; Bayesian methods ; Markoc chain Monte carlo
Abstract:

Most Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) prevalence studies are based on special high risk and nationally unrepresentative populations, such as, STD clinics, family planning clinics, job core participants,military recruits, etc. However, in recent years the emergence of non-invasive testing using nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) has made it possible to conduct CT prevalence studies on nationally representative samples. In the last 10 years, researchers from industrialized countries have provided CT prevalence and trend estimates from nationally representative population-based complex sample surveys. All these national prevalence and trend estimates assume that the NAATs used to screen for chlamydia have perfect sensitivity and specificity. However, such assumption is unreasonable and unrealistic. In this work, we use Bayesian methods to simultaneously provide estimates of prevalence, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. We use the Gibbs sampler to estimate the marginal posterior distributions of all parameters. Based on this modeling approach, the unadjusted (apparent prevalence) estimate is about 2 times the adjusted (true prevalence).


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