Spatio-temporal variation in cesarean rates in New South Wales, Australia, from 1994 to 2010

• Activity Number: 100
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: International Indian Statistical Association
• Author(s): Louise Ryan*+
• Companies: University of Technology
• Keywords: Bayeisan multilevel/hierarchical models ; Semiparametric regression ; Spatial variation ; temporal trend ; Spatio-temporal interactions

Abstract

The practical benefits of Bayesian spatio-temporal smoothing are demonstrated in a perinatal health study that examines geographic and temporal variation in cesarean rates in New South Wales, Australia, from 1994-2010. We introduce a unified modeling framework which takes into account spatial variation, temporal trend and spatio- temporal interactions according to the way the geographical information is available. The resultant space-time specific rate estimates are stable and reliable. Our proposed models serve as a useful exploratory analysis tool to visually characterize space-time patterns of cesarean rates over New South Wales regions and a 17-year time period. A mixed model representation allows for simple implementation with standard software.