Record Linkage and Capture-Recapture in the the Analysis of Genocide in Guatemala

• Activity Number: 374
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Committee on Scientific Freedom and Human Rights
• Author(s): Patrick Ball*+
• Companies: Human Rights Data Analysis Group
• Keywords: capture-recapture ; war crimes ; multiple systems estimation ; record linkage

Abstract

In 1999, the UN Commission for Historical Clarification (i.e., the truth commission) for Guatemala concluded that approximately 200,000 people were killed and disappeared during the course of the armed internal conflict. In this talk, I will present both historical and ongoing capture-recapture analyses of data collected from Guatemala's internal armed conflict. I will discuss ongoing debates about the "200,000 dead" estimate, and how new estimates may help to refine this understanding. The capature-recapture analysis contributed to the Commission for Historical Clarification's conclusion in 1999 that acts of genocide were committed during the conflict. An updated version of the analysis was used as expert testimony in the 2013 trial of General José Efraín Ríos Montt, who was found guilty of committing acts of genocide.