Estimating Undocumented Deaths During the Syrian Conflict

• Activity Number: 374
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Committee on Scientific Freedom and Human Rights
• Author(s): Patrick Ball and Anita Gohdes and Megan Price*+
• Companies: Human Rights Data Analysis Group and Human Rights Data Analysis Group and Human Rights Data Analysis Group
• Keywords: record linkage ; capture-recapture ; multiple systems estimation ; log-linear models ; casualty estimation ; human rights

Abstract

The conflict in Syria has been tremendously well-documented, yet despite this, we still do not know how many people have been killed from conflict-related violence. This talk will present work from a collaboration with the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights evaluating multiple sources of records of documented deaths during the Syrian conflict. We will also present recent capture-recapture analyses aimed at estimating the total number of conflict-related deaths, including those that currently remain undocumented. Preliminary estimates indicate that including undocumented cases may as much as double the current death toll.