Spatio-Temporal Methodology for Space Weather Monitoring

• Activity Number: 205
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Peter Craigmile*+ and Qingying Shu and Matteo Ceriotti and Lyndsay Fletcher and Marian Scott
• Companies: Ohio State University/University of Glasgow and University of Glasgow and University of Glasgow and University of Glasgow and University of Glasgow
• Keywords: Keplerian orbits ; sensor network ; spatio-temporal modeling, and prediction ; uncertainty quantification

Abstract

Space weather is the name given to electromagnetic disturbances in the solar system and the near-Earth environment. It can damage spacecraft and disrupt electrical power networks and GPS.

In this talk we discuss the challenges in building spatio-temporal statistical models for the magnetosphere using sparse measurements of the magnetic field from a cluster of satellites and physical driven information such as the Tsyagnenko model. Our statistical models capture nonstationary behavior relating to the interaction of the earth and sun's magnetic fields. We demonstrate preliminary time series modeling of the magnetic field, and point to spatio-temporal extensions.

The results will be used in a long-term project to design a sensor network of small satellites moving through space, and measuring space weather conditions, including the magnetic field, semi-continuously.