The Variation of Marathon Performances with Age: A Longitudinal Study

• Activity Number: 54
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Sunday, August 3, 2014 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Richard L. Smith*+
• Companies: SAMSI
• Keywords: athletic performance ; Boston marathon ; longitudinal data analysis ; random effects models ; splines

Abstract

Performances in marathons and other athletic events decline after the age of 35, and more rapidly as the runner gets older. However, there are few studies that analyze the performance over many years of individual runners. From published results of the Boston marathon, I have compiled a dataset of over 700 runners who ran the race at least five times during the period 2000-2013. By piecing together the age-performance curve for individual runners, I am able to construct an aggregate curve for all runners. The analysis is performed separately for men and women, and may be further subdivided, for example,among runners of different ability levels. The results are compared both with current qualification standards for the Boston marathon, and with age-graded formulas that are based on world records.