Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Diurnal Wind Power Cycles Using Multiple Regional Climate Models

• Activity Number: 623
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 7, 2014 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Scott D. Goddard*+ and Marc G. Genton and Amanda S. Hering and Stephan R. Sain
• Companies: Texas A&M and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and Colorado School of Mines and NCAR
• Keywords: Wind power ; Climate change ; Regional climate modeling

Abstract

Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the U.S. grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an in?uential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential e?ects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by combining output from 9 high-resolution regional climate models comprising a historical (1971-1999) and future (2041-2069) period. A formal semi-parametric statistical hypothesis test is developed to determine if the seasonal daily averaged cycles at these locations are signi?cantly di?erent between the historical and future climate periods. We investigate speci?c changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles at these locations and assess their potential impact on wind power production.