Dynamic Spatial Temporal Evaluation of Deterministic Air Quality Models Using Network Sensor Systems

• Activity Number: 205
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2014 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Elizabeth Mannshardt*+ and Montserrat Fuentes and Soumendra Lahiri and Kristen Foley
• Companies: North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University and Environmental Protection Agency
• Keywords: network sensors ; air quality models ; dynamic evaluation ; ozone

Abstract

The Air Quality System (AQS) network of monitoring stations provides a rich source of information about air pollution. However, station observations do not allow consideration of different emission and meteorological scenarios. Air quality models can be used to predict changes in air quality due to changes in emissions or meteorology. The Community Multiscale Air Quality System (CMAQ) allows for estimations under different climate scenarios, but is not as accurate as network sensors. Of interest is the comparison of modeled ozone output to observed ozone, as well as how ozone changes in response to emissions and meteorological factors. We consider ozone observations from AQS monitoring stations to evaluate CMAQ ozone estimates. Here it is more important for the model to accurately predict the relative change in pollutant levels rather than absolute concentrations. We model the relative change of observed ozone to modeled, allowing for a scaling adjustment. A dynamic evaluation approach explicitly focuses on predicted pollutant responses due to changes in emissions or meteorology. Findings from such dynamic evaluation studies can be directly relevant in regulatory decisions.