Population Modeling Framework for Evaluating Tobacco Regulation and Policy

• Activity Number: 672
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): George Rochester*+
• Companies: Center for Tobacco Products/FDA
• Keywords: Tobacco control ; Population modeling

Abstract

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (2009) gives FDA authority to regulate the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products to protect public health. Tobacco control occurs in a complex system of federal, state and local control programs. Regulatory policy influences behaviors of the population and it is important to assess possible impact on long-term health outcomes, morbidity and mortality. We introduce individual-based and dynamic models which may be used to assess the impact of regulatory activities on the all-cause mortality and morbidity outcomes and the use of tobacco products in a dynamic population segmented by age, gender and smoking status. We will discuss some key challenges in generating data to support model development and uncertainty analysis.