JSM 2013 Home
Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 672
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #310383
Title: A Population Dynamic Model for Smoking Prevalence, Mortality Prediction
Author(s): Tom Lu*+
Companies: FDA/CTP
Keywords: population ; dynamic model ; tobacco control

To better understand the dynamic of smoking prevalence and mortality, we develop a population dynamic model to simulate the dynamic behavior of smoking. Our model can follow the transition between various populations, i.e. smoker, former smoker and never smoker, tailored to races, age groups, gender etc. A simulation study using published data as input for transition probabilities shows that the model prediction is consistent with existing data. We use the model to predict smoking prevalence and mortality under a few scenarios. Our model demonstrates a promising tool to help control smoking prevalence and mortality.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2013 program

2013 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

ASA Meetings Department  •  732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314  •  (703) 684-1221  •  meetings@amstat.org
Copyright © American Statistical Association.