A Population Dynamic Model for Smoking Prevalence, Mortality Prediction

• Activity Number: 672
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Tom Lu*+
• Companies: FDA/CTP
• Keywords: population ; dynamic model ; tobacco control

Abstract

To better understand the dynamic of smoking prevalence and mortality, we develop a population dynamic model to simulate the dynamic behavior of smoking. Our model can follow the transition between various populations, i.e. smoker, former smoker and never smoker, tailored to races, age groups, gender etc. A simulation study using published data as input for transition probabilities shows that the model prediction is consistent with existing data. We use the model to predict smoking prevalence and mortality under a few scenarios. Our model demonstrates a promising tool to help control smoking prevalence and mortality.